While Al-Qaeda is not what it once was, it remains a strong terrorist organization with followers across the world, including those who seek to enter the U.S. and those already here plotting their next attack. This past year, Al-Qaeda's presence in Afghanistan has grown – growth that began following the U.S. withdrawal – and it is once again closely tied to the Taliban. It has established new training camps and madrassas, but most troubling are reports that Al-Qaeda members are part of the Taliban government.
Since the death of leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri two years ago, the organization's new leader Saif Al-'Adl – rumored to be in Iran, and for information about whom the U.S. government is offering up to $10 million – has yet to appear in any videos. But he has released essays under his multiple noms de plume.
One major event that shaped Al-'Adl's focus this past year was October 7; he has praised both the attack and Hamas. In a February essay, he called "the Palestinian mujahideen" a "towering moral summit to which no nationalist or Islamic liberation movement has preceded them." He also praised Hamas as "giants of asymmetric warfare," noting their successes in the current war despite their weaker capabilities relative to those of Israel's military.
“23 Years Later, Al-Qaeda Threatens ‘Third 9/11’ After October 7, Exhorts Pro-Palestinian Protesters in U.S. To Take The Next Step And Carry Out Attacks,” by Steven Stalinsky, MEMRI, September 11, 2024:
…Another poster encouraged further incitement against the backdrop of images of President Biden’s support for Israel and the protests that followed in the U.S. and elsewhere, in hopes of inspiring attacks in the West. The poster stated: “We urge Muslims in America to pay attention to the creative idea of Inspire magazine, and to apply it to White House staff, to members of the U.S. House of Representatives, and in general to all supporters of America’s unjust policies.”
On May 24, 2024, Al-Sahab released a three-page statement titled “Support and Endorsement of the Lone-Lion Operations Against the Zionist Aggressors.” In addition to inciting the “assassination and beheading of the infidel Zionists,” Al-Qaeda General Command, it said, values the protest movements of Western demonstrators and student sit-ins at various universities in the West who continue “to voice rejection of the genocide taking place in Gaza.” The statement went on to remind Muslims, including those living in the West, that the “divine shari’a duty” with which they are charged is not the same as the duty of the youth of the West, who have, it said, “spared” Muslims the duty of support with their demonstrations, strikes, and sit-ins in the West. It continued: “You are bound to a predestined religious duty, which is jihad and fighting, like the Vanguards of Liberation – Group of Muhammad Salah, may Allah grant success to their strikes targeting the throats of the Zionists… Let the Muslim youth create groups that master the art of disciplining the Jews, Americans, and those who ally with them…”
Throughout the past year, Al-Qaeda has attempted to capitalize on the October 7 attacks and the subsequent pro-Palestinian protests in the West and the U.S., seeking to identify recruits for lone-wolf operations. Against the backdrop of footage of massive crowds of protesters in Western cities struggling with police and carrying Palestinian flags and pro-Hamas signs at government buildings and other landmarks, a major video release by Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), titled “What America & The West Do Not Expect” and dated December 30, 2023, addressed the protestors: “Today is your day, all Muslims in America and Europe – and with you, revenge will be achieved… so do not be content with denouncing and denunciation.”
Al-Qaeda Central Command devoted a November 24 essay to chiding the protestors in the West, calling their efforts insufficient and stressing that “America needs a new civil war.” In another major essay, on November 29, it exhorted protestors to launch “civil disobedience” campaigns around the world – which are, in effect, already underway – and to carry out attacks.
Al-Qaeda exhorted Americans and Europeans to join in on the “civil disobedience.” In the November 29 essay, defining this as action to “completely paralyz[e] political life in order to topple the collaboration… Disrupt the business cycle…The masses must seize control.” It added that the “angry masses of our ummah” must establish “secret and public security groups, both of them armed” that will “[b]e prepared to eliminate” state security forces “without pity, before they eliminate you.”
AQAP released a video titled “Jihad for the Sake of Allah is the Solution,” on February 8, 2024, a nine-minute video that was also part of the relaunch of Inspire magazine. It urged viewers to carry out lone wolf attacks in the U.S., advising protestors to abandon demonstrators for armed jihad and calling this “the only solution to restore Palestine.” In the video, former Guantanamo Bay detainee Ibrahim Al-Qosi addresses would-be lone wolf attackers in the West: “Oh lone mujahid in the West, particularly in America, make the flood of your lone operations an extension to the blessed operation of Al-Aqsa Flood, which your brothers in Palestine have started, until the liberation of Jerusalem from the Jews’ captivity, with the permission of Allah… “We say to you: Today is your day”…Referring specifically to the protests in the West, he called on those on the streets protesting to terrorist attacks for retribution against Israel, “The oppression and hostility of those can only be repelled by a flood of whizzing bullets, the stabs of daggers, the blasting of car-bombs, improvised explosive devices, and the running over by cars.”…